This year’s property market ushered in the “devaluation tide”?Understand pedestrian forecast: housing prices in the past two years or beyond imagination
This is since the reform in 1998, China’s real estate has been in the situation of only rising, some people say that the price of 2008 is not down?There was a slight dip, followed by a historic explosion in 2009.To be honest, with the current housing price, it is very unlikely that young people can buy houses by themselves without the support of their elders.In 2021, the average selling price will be 10,218 yuan per square meter. According to the public data of Shell Research Institute, the average housing price in 65 cities nationwide is 17,388 yuan per square meter, and the average housing price in four first-tier cities is 65,000 yuan per square meter.There were 20 cities where the average housing price exceeded 20,000 yuan per square meter.34 cities saw average housing prices exceed 15,000 yuan per square meter.The average housing price exceeded 10,000 yuan in 103 counties.Public data from the Middle East Research Institute also show that the average threshold of house purchase in the four first-tier cities is 6.17 million yuan, 6.13 million yuan, 5.8 million yuan and 3.59 million yuan.Four second-tier cities have an average purchase threshold of more than 3 million yuan, and five cities have an average purchase threshold of 2 to 3 million yuan.Nine cities have a home purchase threshold of 1 to 2 million yuan.Eight third-tier cities have a home purchase threshold of 1.05 million to 3.13 million yuan.It seems impossible to buy a house!According to zhuge Housing Search data, the national average housing price to income ratio is 12.9, and the cities with housing price to income ratio over 30 are Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Sanya and Xiamen. Most of the new first-tier cities and second-tier cities have housing price to income ratio between 20 and 30. It takes 20 or 30 years to afford a small house without eating or drinking.The vast majority of people on the market are choosing bank mortgage loans, with the current interest rate calculation, loan 1 million, 30 years of interest is absolutely more than 1 million, so that many people who want to buy a house feel powerless!As the property market has lost the concept of “investment”, the crowd of onlookers has become more and more, and it has become the consensus of many people that as long as everyone does not buy a house, the house price in 2022 will surely usher in a “wave of depreciation”.More people think that the current housing price is so high, real estate enterprises are full of money, the surface developers become high housing price sinners.The formation of high housing prices is inseparable from the cost and demand caused by, take the newly opened real estate for example, many people only see the cost of construction and installation, and did not see the cost of construction and installation, other costs such as land, manpower, management, taxes and fees.According to the report on the development cost of China’s top 100 real estate enterprises in 2020, land accounts for 48% of the development cost, and medium-high buildings account for 60% to 70% of the cost. In the sales price, other factors that change can be almost ignored.In the past two years, our construction and installation costs and other material costs have risen sharply. In fact, the rise of housing price is not so big as imagined, and the most critical thing is the cost of land.Since the implementation of the new regulations on centralized land supply in 2021, a different situation has been reflected. The overall transaction data of the first land supply is still very considerable.The second round of centralized land supply ended in a dismal end, with a failure rate of 32.4%. In Beijing, Guangzhou and Hangzhou, which have always been big buyers of land auction, the failure rate is as high as 50%, and the average premium rate is only within 15%. The average premium rate of 300 cities in China is 14.8%.The third land auction is also not ideal. In 2021, the land transfer fee of 300 cities in China will reach 5.62 trillion yuan, down 19% year-on-year.Land is the wind indicator of the property market, if the price of land is not ideal, the overall price rise is not ideal, in other words.The price of flour will not rise, and of course the price of bread will not rise either. If we push out land according to this model in the next two to three years, it will only be low or not high.The myth that house price only rises does not fall should be broken!Policy makes it impossible to hide.Nowadays, there are not so many people in demand for house purchase, and the overall decline index is beyond the imagination of many ordinary people. Data show that the investment proportion of house purchase in 2016 is 85%, in 2017 75%, and in 2020 less than 40%. Entering the second half of 2021, the main force of house purchase mainly focuses on the demand and replacement.The current real estate market has lost the support of investors, just need buyers can support the whole real estate market?According to the central bank’s open data show that domestic urban residents home-ownership rate reached 96%, worth 1.5 set, the families of the two sets of housing accounted for 31%, with three or more housing families accounted for 10.05%, the families of the two sets of housing, we can understand for just need to use, it has three sets of or more housing families also really only just need to be?Taking the whole data into the research report, it is shown that the vacancy rate of domestic real estate is about 22.3%, while the number of vacant real estate units is 85 million. The whole domestic real estate market is in oversupply. In the process of market regulation in 2021, all the drawbacks have been exposed before the market cools rapidly.Policy to force enough now buyers are mainly deal with the real demand caused by the “live not fry” has deep into the each ordinary heart, we used to think that the state of each stage is a policy to xu li, the next wave of rising prices, so in 2008, the same is true in 2014, even 2016, real estate prices result is not the same,The answer to whether the policy will be the same in 2021 is not so simple.In 2021, 652 expenditures were made to regulate the property market.Three red lines: net assets and liabilities of real estate enterprises after deducting advance payments are more than 70%;Debt ratio is greater than 100% cash short debt ratio is less than one times.Step on a red line with interest, total debt can not rise more than 10%;Step on two red lines with interest, total debt can not rise more than 5%;Step on three red line interest, total debt can not rise;Even if companies that do not cross the red line cannot increase their interest-bearing debt by more than 15 percent, they will be required to return to the regulated level by June 2023.Two red lines for the banking industry. On January 1, 2021, the People’s Bank of China and the Banking And Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Establishing the Centralized Loan Management System for Banking Financial Institutions, limiting the loan ceiling ratio of real estate enterprises and individuals.There are restrictions on purchase, loan limits, price limits, sales limits, second-hand housing reference price and other policy adjustment.Most importantly, the long-awaited property tax has finally been confirmed. Households with multiple homes will inevitably face a sell-off, with a 10, 20 or even 30 percent cut in prices.Data show that the number of second-hand houses listed in 60 key cities has exceeded 5 million, tianjin, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Beijing, Wuhan, Chengdu and other cities have exceeded 100,000, Chongqing is more than 200,000 destocking cycle has extended to nearly 20 months,And second-hand housing hang dish volume continues to rise, the number of amount of three or four line city listed are not counted, the terror of high investment because many people will choose to “cash out”, all sales at the same time, it is a great bargain for buyers of good opportunity, take out tu same treasure knife chop down 10%, 20% are likely to clinch a deal,In the eyes of many investors, breaking even is good enough.Rich real estate enterprises can not carry, in order to return funds, there is nothing to do not come out, although some cities issued “limit fall order”, but real estate enterprises choose to send fine decoration, home appliances, car parking, return the down payment to obtain greater capital recovery.For the real estate development of pedestrians to give their own views, the United States and Japan real estate bubble burst lessons, the regulation of the property market is increasingly mature, the market will not crash, but the real estate does not mean that will not depreciate.Some executives of real estate companies say that housing prices cannot fall by more than 30 percent, or all domestic real estate companies will be shut down. Banks also say that they can only afford 20 percent.House prices have gone up several times in recent years for homebuyers, so why is the price cut so much?Developers take the land early to support the land cost is very low, they make a lot of money, even if the rest of the housing discounted sales is positive, there are different opinions, only the market to find a balance point of interest.In any case, the overall housing price of the real estate market in 2022 is still in a relatively weak state, and it is almost impossible to return to the situation in 2020 and the first half of 20210, and more will continue to the real estate in the second half of 2020.